EUR/USD surged to as high as 1.1713 last week but faced strong resistance below 1.1810 fibonacci level and reversed. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week for 1.1016 support first. Break will larger 1.0807. Decisive break there will confirm completion of whole rise from 1.0461 and would likely extend the larger down trend. On the upside, above 1.1363 minor resistance will turn bias neutral.
In the bigger picture, overall price actions from 1.6039 long term top is viewed as a corrective pattern with fall from 1.3993 as the third leg. Price actions from 1.0461 are viewed as correction to fall from 1.3993. Such correction could have completed ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.3993 to 1.0461. Break of 1.0461 will extend the decline from 1.3993. On the upside, break of 1.2042 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of trend reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish and expect a new low below 1.0461 at a later stage.
In the long term picture, price actions from 1.6039 (2008 high) is viewed as a corrective move. There is no clear sign that it's completed yet. And we'll still expect more downside towards 0.8223 low as long as 1.2042 resistance holds.
No comments:
Post a Comment